|
In
November, the Fund rose 8.4% (the FTSE Gold Mines Index
was +3.1%, gold + 5.3%, silver +6.4% and palladium flat.
In 2004, the fund is +1.6% after +80% in 2003. Since
the July lows, the Fund has risen over 31% without a
single month of correction. We remind investors that
institutional weightings in gold, mining and resource
shares remain way below the averages of the 80's and
90's.
In
November we increased Goldfields, the subject of a hostile
bid from Harmony, in fact a most unharmonious affair.
We also added to Ivanhoe, a big underperformer recently,
where fundamentals are improving. As we believe the
bull market in gold is still in its infancy, the Fund
maintains a high exposure to smaller companies with
high operational gearing to the gold/metals prices.
Baker Steel are experts in this area and that is why
we have chosen them as advisers.
News
flow was positive. The USD continued to fall with even
the Fed Chairman expressing frustration with the adjustment
necessary to finance the trade deficit in the USA. Gold
reached the psychologically important USD 450/oz level.
Randgold, the Fund's biggest position, announced an
increased resource estimate at Loulo. Oxian has bid
for Mincor and Kinross has bought RTX's share in a Brazil
mine. Placer Dome and Gammon Lake have raised over USD
500mn equity and Oxus Gold is planning to raise about
USD 55mn. The new US exchange traded fund (StreetTRACKS)
debuted on the NYSE, trading over 100T of gold by month
end. Central banks continued to reduce gold reserves.
The Austrian and French central banks said they would
sell some gold but the Bundesbank is undecided. Under
the European Gold Agreement so far only 880T of a potential
2500T have been accounted for. Dehedging continues apace,
with the global hedge book falling by 4.3mn oz in £Q04.
Barrick Gold, the big hedger, says it is "very
committed" to reducing its huge forward sales position.
The
Fund is positioned to provide leverage to a gold price
recovery. It has holdings in pre-IPO stock (eg African
Minerals), a much reduced bullion position (only 4%
and now only palladium), the highest share weighting
it's ever had (97%), an overwhelmingly small to medium-cap
emphasis and just under 5% in options and warrants positions.
| Portfolio
changes |
| Net
buys |
Net
sales |
| 1.
Goldfields |
1.
Placer Dome |
| 2.
Ivanhoe |
2.
Freeport McMoran |
|
3.
Eurozone Mining |
|
4.
Oxus Gold |
|
3.
Lihir Gold |
|
3.
Randgold Resources |
 |
|
| Asset
allocation |
Top
10 holdings (39% of fund) |
| Gold
and resource shares 96.6% |
1.
Randgold 5.4% |
| |
2.
Ivanhoe 5.0% |
| Palladium
3.6% |
3.
Northern Orion 4.6% |
| |
4.
Resolute Mining 4.3% |
| Cash
-0.2% |
5.
Palladium Bullion 3.6% |
| |
6.
Goldfields 3.2% |
| |
7.
Placer Dome 3.2% |
| |
8.
European Gold Wts 3.1% |
| |
9.
Perseverance Corp 3.1% |
| |
10.
Apex Silver 3.0% |
|
|
| Performance
in USD for initial investors |
| Since
inception (20/2/03) |
| |
20/2/03
|
30/11/04
|
%
ch
|
| P&C
Global Gold Fund (gross NAV) |
1000
|
1825.10
|
+83%
|
| Value
of $1,000 invested (after all fees) |
1000
|
1722.92
|
+72%
|
| |
|
|
|
| FTSE
Gold Mines Index |
1240
|
1829
|
+30%
|
| Gold
bullion |
352
|
451
|
+30%
|
| Silver
bullion |
4.65
|
7.76
|
+69%
|
| Palladium
bullion |
252 |
210 |
-13% |
| Monthly
performance (%, gross) |
| 2003 |
| Jan |
Feb
|
Mar
|
Apr
|
May
|
Jun
|
Jul
|
Aug
|
Sep
|
Oct
|
Nov
|
Dec |
| n/a |
-2.2
|
-1.5 |
3.1 |
9.0 |
2.0 |
9.8 |
19.1 |
4.4 |
7.4 |
7.1 |
3.3 |
| 2004 |
| Jan |
Feb
|
Mar
|
Apr
|
May
|
Jun
|
Jul
|
Aug
|
Sep
|
Oct
|
Nov
|
Dec |
| -5.0 |
2.00 |
6.8 |
-19.7 |
1.4 |
-6.1 |
-2.2 |
4.9 |
9.9 |
5.2 |
8.4 |
|
| Performance
statistics |
Number
of months: 21 |
| Number
of "Up" months 15 |
Number
of "Down" months 6 |
| Average
"Up" months +7.0% |
Average
"Down" months -6.2% |
| Largest
monthly rise +19.1% (8/03) |
Largest
monthly fall -19.7% (4/04) |
|
|
| Performance
in USD (for initial investors) and asset allocation |
 |
| All
prices and comparative numbers are unaudited and
for indication purposes only. |
|
