|
In
July the Fund was down 2%. In 2004, the Fund is down
22% after +80% in 2003. June's NAV was revised down
to USD 1419 from USD 1452. This was due to a custodian
error in double-counting a new issue by Eurozinc Mining.
Despite attempts at independent valuation by the Fund's
managers, the mistake was only confirmed after the report
was issued. We apologise for this.
For
students of markets, July's activity was from a behavioral
standpoint a classic for a multi-month correction in
a bull market. Extreme volatility: a mid July gain of
over 5% was subsequently retraced. Low speculative participation:
the net long gold position is now about 6mn oz (compare
this with an average of 12mn oz over the life of this
gold recovery). Risk aversion: large cap stocks (in
which the Fund is largely underweight) have outperformed
small caps (in which we are well invested and which
did us so well last year). Squeezed supply: mine financing
has crawled to a halt in every country. Attractive valuations:
mining share indices trading way below where they ought
to be for this level of gold. Nowhere is this more so
than in South Africa where (according to Baker Steel,
the Fund's adviser) many mines are trading on option-type
valuations. Overall, this sets the scene for a strong
second half given sector volatility.
We
hope not to miss this rise. The Fund is heavily geared
to recovery. We have large holdings in pre-IPO stock
(eg African Minerals). We've reduced the bullion position
(at the time of writing) to under 5% (down from 17%
in April and 37% in January); shares have better gearing
than the metals to recovery. We're invested in many
smaller names to whom a whiff of recovery should act
like Viagra on their share prices. We hold just under
5% of the Fund in options and warrants where we'll get
'more bang for our buck" than by holding the common
shares. Baker Steel have of course done due diligence
on all companies held.
Finally,
at this time of high oil prices (by the way, gold is
cheap relative to oil) we remind readers that from 1973
to 1980 - another high oil price period - gold rose
8 times.
| Asset
Allocation (as at 30/7/04) |
Top
10 Holdings (50% of fund) |
| Gold
and resource shares: 89% |
1.
Silver Bullion 7% |
| |
2.
Placer Dome 5% |
| Silver,
palladium: 11% |
3.
Randgold 5% |
| |
4.
Harmony 4% |
| Cash
0% |
5.
Palladium bullion 4% |
| |
6.
Mvelaphandra 4% |
| |
7.
Northern Orion 4% |
| |
8.
African Minerals 4% |
| |
9.
Lihir Gold 4% |
| |
10.
Goldfields 3% |
| Asset
Allocation (per month) |
 |
| Performance
in USD |
| Since
inception (20/2/03): |
| |
20/2/03
|
30/7/04
|
%
ch
|
| P&C
Global Gold Fund (Gross NAV) |
1000
|
1388.44
|
+39%
|
| Value
of $1,000 invested (after fees) |
1000
|
1310.71
|
+31%
|
| |
|
|
|
| FTSE
Gold Mines Index |
1240
|
1463
|
+18%
|
| Gold
bullion |
352
|
392
|
+11%
|
| Silver
bullion |
4.65
|
6.42
|
+38%
|
| Palladium
bullion |
252 |
216 |
-14% |
| |
| Monthly
performance (%, gross) |
| 2003 |
| Jan |
Feb
|
Mar
|
Apr
|
May
|
Jun
|
Jul
|
Aug
|
Sep
|
Oct
|
Nov
|
Dec |
| n/a |
-2.2
|
-1.5 |
3.1 |
9.0 |
2.0 |
9.8 |
19.1 |
4.4 |
7.4 |
7.1 |
3.3 |
| 2004 |
| Jan |
Feb
|
Mar
|
Apr
|
May
|
Jun
|
Jul
|
Aug
|
Sep
|
Oct
|
Nov
|
Dec |
| -5.0 |
2.00 |
6.8 |
-19.7 |
1.4 |
-6.1 |
-2.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
| |
| All
prices and comparative numbers are unaudited and
for indication purposes only. |
|