|
In
August the fund rose 4.9%. It would have ended nearly
6% higher but the fund's directors decided to make a
prudential write-down of 20% of the African Minerals
pre-IPO position (reason: a delay to the IPO/valuation
basis) and 30% of the Sibir Energy position (reason:
events in Russia leading to its suspension). These will
remain under review. In 2004. the fund is down 18.9%
after +80% in 2003.
During
August we re-focused the fund on South Africa, where
(as we reported at the year end) a depreciation of the
Rand and a surprise cut in interest rates is leading
to a revival. Large positions were taken in Harmony
(now 9% of the fund, the biggest stock position we've
ever taken), Randgold and Goldfields. Lihir and Anglogold
had to move over to make room.
News
continued positive. The World Gold Council reported
that consumer demand was 11% higher year on year. Gold
book hedger Sons of Gwalia (which we've never held)
was forced into voluntary administration by concerns
over its hedge book commitments (a reminder to other
companies not to hedge). Gabriel (one of our largest
holdings) attracted the attention of a giant new 10%
shareholder: Newmont Mining. We believe corporate activity
will be supportive to the sector as the majors try to
bid us for our stock in the quality smaller mines we
hold.
While
the outlook for our sector is brightening, range-bound
summer markets are still risk averse. Large cap stocks
- in which the fund is underweight - are still outperforming
the fund's overweighted small caps. We need a push higher
in the gold price (a close above the old highs at $430?)
for the fund to roar ahead.
We've
positioned the fund not to sleep through a gold price
recovery. It's got holdings in pre-IPO stock (eg African
Minerals), a much reduced bullion position (only 4%
and now only palladium), the highest share weighting
it's ever had (96%), an overwhelmingly small-cap emphasis
and just under 5% in options and warrant positions.
| Asset
Allocation (as at 31/8/04) |
Top
10 Holdings (49% of fund) |
| Gold
and resource shares: 96% |
1.
Harmony 9% |
| |
2.
Goldfields 7% |
| Palladium:
4% |
3.
Randgold 6% |
| |
4.
Placer Dome 6% |
|
|
5.
Mvelaphandra 4% |
| |
6.
Palladium Bullion 4% |
| |
7.
Northern Orion 4% |
| |
8.
Resolute Mining 3% |
| |
9.
Gabriel Resources 3% |
| |
10.
European Gold Wts 3% |
| Asset
Allocation (per month) |
 |
| Performance
in USD |
| Since
inception (20/2/03): |
| |
20/2/03
|
31/8/04
|
%
ch
|
| P&C
Global Gold Fund (Gross NAV) |
1000
|
1456.73
|
+46%
|
| Value
of $1,000 invested (after fees) |
1000
|
1375.18
|
+38%
|
| |
|
|
|
| FTSE
Gold Mines Index |
1240
|
1592
|
+28%
|
| Gold
bullion |
352
|
410
|
+16%
|
| Silver
bullion |
4.65
|
6.75
|
+45%
|
| Palladium
bullion |
252 |
212 |
-16% |
| |
| Monthly
performance (%, gross) |
| 2003 |
| Jan |
Feb
|
Mar
|
Apr
|
May
|
Jun
|
Jul
|
Aug
|
Sep
|
Oct
|
Nov
|
Dec |
| n/a |
-2.2
|
-1.5 |
3.1 |
9.0 |
2.0 |
9.8 |
19.1 |
4.4 |
7.4 |
7.1 |
3.3 |
| 2004 |
| Jan |
Feb
|
Mar
|
Apr
|
May
|
Jun
|
Jul
|
Aug
|
Sep
|
Oct
|
Nov
|
Dec |
| -5.0 |
2.00 |
6.8 |
-19.7 |
1.4 |
-6.1 |
-2.2 |
4.9 |
|
|
|
|
| |
| All
prices and comparative numbers are unaudited and
for indication purposes only. |
|