April
2004 was an excruciating and volatile month for gold and
metal investors and for the Fund, which fell by 19.7%.
The FTSE Gold Mines index fell by 22% and wiped out nine
months of gains. There was no sanctuary in metals. Silver
- nearly a fifth of the fund - collapsed by 24% and gold
and palladium, though relatively resistant, saw falls
of 'only' 8% and 12% respectively. What caused this mini
firestorm? Expected higher $ rates and slower growth in
China, a rally in an oversold $, huge net long/leveraged
positions in metals (nearly 20mn oz in gold), all accompanied
by a panicky and indiscriminate liquidation. This has
continued into May with nearly every other traded asset
market (Tokyo to Toronto, bonds to Baltic futures) under
the gun... with the notable exception of oil (ironically,
an inflation component, and therefore a 'friend' of hard
assets like gold).
As
at 30/4/04 the Fund stayed fully invested in a diversified
portfolio of major, medium-sized and junior gold and
mining company shares active in North America, Australasia,
Africa, Russia and other countries, as well as a large
physical position in the metals themselves (12% silver
+ 4% palladium = 17% of the Fund). By month end the
share weighting was increased at the expense of metals.
Our Advisers, Baker Steel, say gold shares are now "significantly"
undervalued relative to gold: regression analysis suggests
that, based upon the current - lower - price of gold,
the XAU index (a 12 stock mining index) should be at
109 (currently near 80).
Conditions
will remain choppy while the market adjusts to a higher
$ and until exponents of the $ "carry trade"
(free-lunch $ borrowing at 1% for longer term speculation)
have been truly burned. Net long positions are now back
to pre-bull market levels, below 10mn oz. Though the
bottom is not necessarily "in" yet, we believe
that investors who buy at these levels will see excellent
multi year returns and April 2004 will be seen as insignificant
a blip on a chart as the double-digit corrections in
each of the last 3 years now appear. Even if metals
correct further from here on continuing liquidation,
we doubt that shares will feel the same downdraft. Short-term
panic has created longer-term opportunity and this,
as Baron Rothschild once said, is the best time to buy.
| Asset
Allocation (as at 30/4/04) |
Top
10 Holdings (46% of fund) |
| Gold
and resource shares: 86% |
1.
Silver Bullion 12% |
| |
2.
Mvelaphandra Res 5% |
| Silver,
gold, palladium: 17% |
3.
Palladium Bullion 4% |
| |
4.
Harmony Gold 4% |
| Cash
(3%) |
5.
Ivanhoe 4% |
| |
6.
Randgold 4% |
| |
7.
Placer Dome 4% |
| |
8.
European Goldfields 3% |
| |
9.
Northern Orion 3% |
| |
10.
African Minerals 3% (pre IPO subsc) |
| Asset
Allocation (per month) |
 |
| Performance
in USD |
| Since
inception (20/2/03): |
| |
20/2/03
|
30/4/04
|
%
ch
|
| P&C
Global Gold Fund (Gross NAV) |
1000
|
1491.48
|
+49%
|
| Value
of $1,000 invested (after fees) |
1000
|
1407.96
|
+41%
|
| |
|
|
|
| FTSE
Gold Mines Index |
1240
|
1380
|
+11%
|
| Gold
bullion |
352
|
388
|
+10%
|
| Silver
bullion |
4.65
|
5.95
|
+28%
|
| Palladium
bullion |
252 |
252 |
-0% |
| |
| Monthly
performance (%, gross) |
| 2003 |
| Jan |
Feb
|
Mar
|
Apr
|
May
|
Jun
|
Jul
|
Aug
|
Sep
|
Oct
|
Nov
|
Dec |
| n/a |
-2.2
|
-1.5 |
3.1 |
9.0 |
2.0 |
9.8 |
19.1 |
4.4 |
7.4 |
7.1 |
3.3 |
| 2004 |
| Jan |
Feb
|
Mar
|
Apr
|
May
|
Jun
|
Jul
|
Aug
|
Sep
|
Oct
|
Nov
|
Dec |
| -5.0 |
2.00 |
6.8 |
-19.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
| All
prices and comparative numbers are unaudited and
for indication purposes only. |
|